FRAMELOREOracle
METHODOLOGY S6-MATCH-8
CALIBRATED · Q3 2026
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FRAMELORE ORACLE · FILM FINANCE ANALYSIS

The verdict before the greenlight.

Submit a screenplay and a budget. Oracle premieres the film in simulation: audiences react, critics file reviews, distributors bid or pass, and every dollar runs the waterfall. One calibrated verdict comes back, DECLINE to STRONG RECOMMEND, with every driver named and priced.

Six fixtures are published in full in the public backtest ledger, including the one the engine got wrong.

ONLY THE ENGINE READS THE SCREENPLAY  ·  NEVER ADDED TO THE PUBLIC LEDGER  ·  DELETED AFTER 45 DAYS

REQUEST ACCESS Read the calibration ledger or email access@filmoracle.io

You run it yourself: sign in, enter the project, get the report. No calls, no meetings, no reader. Single Project, $975. EARLY ADOPTER RATE Most runs finish in under 30 minutes. No success fees, ever.

400
PERSONA VAULT
36
COUNTRIES
5,000
SIMULATIONS / SCENARIO
2,132
CLASSIFIED RELEASES
6
CRITIC LENSES

The premiere, before the premiere.

Two hundred personas, drawn from a fixed 400-persona vault across 36 countries, and a six-critic panel screen your script before a single frame exists. Excitement, will-see intent, and projected reviews, reported as ranges.

The buyers, mapped.

Distributors ranked by genuine likelihood of acquiring your film, grounded in 2,132 classified releases. Not a wish list. A weighted map of who actually buys work like yours.

The diligence, rehearsed.

See what a financier's diligence will find before anyone runs it. Path to a Better Verdict names exactly what is costing you the band, and what would move it.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Every dollar, traced to your seat.

Box office enters at the top. Sales agents, distributors, P&A and debt each take their cut, in contract order, before a dollar reaches you. What arrives at equity, when it arrives, and how likely that is: that is the number Oracle answers for.

SPECIMEN RUN · FLOOR SCENARIO · PLAYS ON ENTRY

RECOUPMENT WATERFALLDISTRIBUTABLE GROSS $35.4M
DISTRIBUTABLE GROSS$35.4M
SALES AGENT$1.1M
RESIDUALS$1.1M
STUDIO OVERHEAD$2.5M
DISTRIBUTION FEE$8.3M
P&A$9.8M
EQUITY RECOUPED$12.0M
BACKEND · 50/50$0.6M

Costs absorb 64 percent of distributable gross; 36 percent returns to the capital stack. Equity recoups fully at $55.6M worldwide.

THE SIMULATION

One film. Thousands of endings.

The waterfall above is one path at the floor. Every plausible release path for your film is simulated five thousand times each, so tens of thousands of outcomes sit behind one number. What comes back is the shape of them: floor, median, ceiling, and the odds of losing money, stated plainly.

SPECIMEN DISTRIBUTION · PLAYS ON ENTRY · THE RECORDED FIGURES DO NOT MOVE

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION · MIXTURE MOICSPECIMEN · EMPIRE OF LIGHT
BREAKEVEN 1.0x P10 1.25x MEDIAN 2.55x P90 4.07x 6% BELOW
5,000 PER SCENARIO · 875 POINTS DRAWN FROM 40,000 RUNSFIGURES FROM THE SPECIMEN REPORT

WHY IT MATTERS

Independent film is financed on conviction. Oracle prices it on evidence.

DILIGENCE, COMPRESSED

Deals now stall in extended diligence cycles, not in development. A calibrated report puts the analysis on the table on day one, in a format capital already knows how to read.

ASSUMPTIONS, STRESS-TESTED

Every financier stress-tests the producer's waterfall assumptions eventually. Oracle does it first, in private, before the money asks.

ONE LANGUAGE

Creative reads story; capital reads recoupment. An Oracle report holds both in one document, so the two sides of the table finally argue about the same numbers.

THE ROOM

Two hundred audiences, drawn from four hundred. Six critic lenses.

The audience is synthetic and the screening is private. No human panelist reads your screenplay, no outside reader is ever shown it, and your material never leaves the secured system. It is used solely to produce your report and for nothing else.

400 personas. 36 countries. Weighted to the specialty and arthouse markets where independent films are actually acquired, not to global box office share.

Each report draws 200 of them, chosen for the tastes and backgrounds that match your film. The vault is the same 400 for every client, so two projects are scored against the same audience.

Excitement, will-see intent and projected reviews come back as ranges with stated confidence. Never a single flattering number.

It is what a test screening tells you, before anything is shot.

THE AUDIENCE VAULT400 PERSONAS · 36 COUNTRIES

ONE DOT = ONE PERSONA · BRIGHTNESS = EXCITEMENT · SPECIMEN RUN

VAULT WEIGHTING BY MARKET · USA 55% · CANADA 11% · UK 10% · ANZ + IRELAND 7% · W. EUROPE 6% · ASIA 5% · NORDIC + E. EUROPE 3% · LATAM 3%

Auteur & Cinephile7.3/10 · FRESH
Festival & Awards7.6/10 · FRESH
Genre Specialist7.0/10 · FRESH
Trade & Industry6.8/10 · FRESH
Audience Populist6.4/10 · FRESH
Mainstream Commercial6.3/10 · FRESH

SIX CRITIC LENSES · TICK MARKS THE 6.0 FRESH LINE · SPECIMEN PANEL MEAN 6.9/10 · RT PROJECTION 79%

"A love letter for people like me who scribble screenplay ideas after every film; I need to see this immediately."

SOFIA A. · 23 · LISBON, PORTUGAL · EXCITEMENT 9/10

"Seaside England, workplace affairs, that's a long way from anything I know or care to sit through for two hours."

LOUIE B. · 67 · YELLOWKNIFE, CANADA · EXCITEMENT 3/10

SYNTHETIC PERSONA REACTIONS FROM A REAL SPECIMEN RUN · NOT HUMAN RESPONDENTS, AND REPORTED AS SUCH IN EVERY REPORT

THE METHOD

How Oracle reads a film, and why the number holds up.

SCRIPT AS WRITTEN STORY DNA GENRE · ARC · HOOKS · RISK COMP DATABASE 2,132 CLASSIFIED RELEASES THE ROOM 400 PERSONAS · 6 LENSES MONTE CARLO 5,000 RUNS / SCENARIO THE VERDICT SIX BANDS DRIVERS NAMED STAMPED S6-MATCH-8

THE ENGINE, END TO END · EVERY REPORT AT EVERY PRICE RUNS THE FULL PATH

01READ THE SCRIPT

Story DNA extracted from the screenplay itself: genre signature, emotional arc, commercial hooks, risk signals. The engine reads the work as written, not a synopsis of it.

02GROUND IT IN COMPS

Comparables drawn from a 2,132-film classified database, 2010 to 2025, with public grosses. Every comparable is a real release, scored for genre, budget tier, cast and director quality, and release strategy.

03SIMULATE THE ROOM

A 200-persona sample, drawn from the fixed 400-persona vault, and the six-critic panel screen the material. Reception comes back as ranges with stated confidence, bear to bull, because a forecast that cannot be wrong is not a forecast.

04RUN THE MONEY

5,000 Monte Carlo waterfall runs for each matched distributor scenario, through the real recoupment order: fees, P&A, debt, corridors, deferments. The run total scales with how many distributors match, so it is stated per scenario, not as a headline number. Every money number carries the name of the lens it was computed under.

05RETURN THE VERDICT

One of six bands, DECLINE to STRONG RECOMMEND, with the drivers named. When something costs the project, the report says which thing and how much. Deductions are named, never silently omitted. Every report is stamped with its methodology version and logged to the calibration ledger.

Confidence is earned structurally: verified data where it exists, declared estimates where it does not, and a permanent record of how each engine generation has performed. The report tells you what Oracle cannot know, in writing.

THE ARTIFACT

The deliverable is not a login. It is a document.

You get an account: run projects, keep every report in one place. What you actually hand to a financier is the artifact: a bound, versioned document built to be forwarded, carrying the verdict and its drivers, the room, the money, the buyer map, and a custody trail naming exactly what was analyzed and under which engine. It reads like a prospectus, not a printout.

FRAMELORE ORACLE FEATURE · CONFIDENTIAL ORACLE VERDICT Recommend DECLINE STRONG RECOMMEND MIXTURE MOIC · P502.55x 80% OUTCOME BAND1.25x TO 4.07x METHODOLOGY S6-MATCH-7 · SPECIMEN: EMPIRE OF LIGHT
THE ROOM 400 PERSONAS · 36 COUNTRIES AUTEUR7.3FESTIVAL7.6GENRE7.0TRADE6.8POPULIST6.4MAINSTREAM6.3 PANEL MEAN 6.9 · RT PROJECTION 79%
THE MONEY DISTRIBUTABLE GROSS$35.4MSALES AGENT$1.1MRESIDUALS$1.1MSTUDIO OVERHEAD$2.5MDISTRIBUTION FEE$8.3MP&A RECOUPMENT$9.8MEQUITY RECOUPED$12.0MBACKEND · 50/50$0.6M EQUITY RECOUPS FULLY AT $55.6M WORLDWIDE
THE BUYER MAP RANKED BY MATCH PROBABILITY PRESTIGE THEATRICALSPECIALTY ARMSTREAMER ORIGINALGENRE LABELREGIONAL / TERRITORY TIER · DEAL SHAPE · FIT REASONING PER BUYER SCHEMATIC PAGE · REAL REPORTS RANK NAMED BUYERS
CUSTODY + PROVENANCE ANALYZED MATERIALS COMMISSIONED BY RUN DATE ENGINE VERSIONS6-MATCH-7 LOGGED TO THE CALIBRATION LEDGER ENTRIES ARE NEVER REVISED
COVER · THE VERDICT THE ROOM · VAULT + LENSES THE MONEY · WATERFALL THE BUYERS · RANKED MAP CUSTODY · LEDGER TRAIL

WHO IT IS FOR

Five seats at the table. One engine under all of them.

PRODUCERS

Know what diligence will find before anyone runs it.

A private run is yours alone: pressure-test the package, see what is costing you the band, fix it before it costs you the deal. Rerun after every rewrite and watch the verdict respond to the work.

PRIVATE RUN · DILIGENCE REHEARSAL
PATH TO A BETTER VERDICT · NAMED LEVERS, SIZED
THE RAISE KIT · TWO-PAGE INVESTOR SUMMARY + READ-ONLY REPORT LINKS

FINANCIERS & INVESTORS

An independent second read before capital commits.

Waterfall economics from your seat, at the bottom of the stack where the risk actually lives. A verdict you can put in the file, with a custody certificate documenting exactly what was analyzed, when, under which engine version.

EQUITY-SEAT WATERFALL · P10 / P50 / P90
CUSTODY CERTIFICATE · CHAIN OF ANALYSIS
PATH TO A BETTER VERDICT · NAMED LEVERS, SIZED
CALIBRATION LEDGER · THE ENGINE'S OWN TRACK RECORD

SALES AGENTS

Corroborate the estimate. Defend it in the room.

An independent, comp-grounded read that stands beside your own territory numbers: distributor candidates ranked by match probability against 2,132 classified releases, and festival routing with theatrical math for positioning the title.

BUYER MAP · RANKED BY MATCH PROBABILITY
ACQUISITION ESTIMATES · COMP-GROUNDED
FESTIVAL + THEATRICAL MATH · SCREENS, PTA, MULTIPLIER

DISTRIBUTORS

An acquisition read before the screening ends.

The same engine from the buy side: what the title is likely to return in your release model, where it sits against your own slate, and what the downside looks like if reception lands under the projection.

BUY-SIDE READ · RETURN RANGE IN YOUR RELEASE MODEL
RECEPTION DOWNSIDE · WHAT A MISS COSTS
SLATE FIT · WHERE THE TITLE SITS AGAINST YOUR OWN

ROADMAP

LENDERS

The same waterfall your borrower is selling you.

The engine already models the debt position: collateral coverage, repayment order, downside scenarios. A dedicated Lender Memo format is on the roadmap, not yet shipped.

DEBT-SEAT ANALYSIS · ALREADY IN THE ENGINE
LENDER MEMO · DEDICATED FORMAT, ON THE ROADMAP

Oracle does not sell your film. It tells you what to ask for.

A calibrated third-party read, a custody-stamped report an investor can put in a diligence file, and a path to a better verdict before anyone else scores you. Every report ends where your film needs to go: to market.

FESTIVAL ROUTING

Best-fit festival strategy with fallbacks, matched to the film's lane and release window.

BUYER TARGETS

Distributors ranked by match probability, with tier, deal structure, and fit reasoning.

AWARDS POSITIONING

Target categories, campaign path, and campaign cost, read honestly against the field.

THE PITCH, WRITTEN

An investor-ready pitch paragraph in every report, built from the analysis, ready to forward.

THE EDGE

Most tools forecast the box office.
Oracle prices your seat in it.

An investor does not get paid in box office. Between the ticket and your return sit fees, P&A, debt, and corridors, and most analysis stops before any of them. Oracle starts there.

BOX OFFICE GROSSEXHIBITOR SHAREDISTRIBUTION FEEP&A RECOUPMENTDEBT + CORRIDORSEQUITY · YOUR SEAT MOST TOOLS FORECAST HERE ORACLE PRICES HERE

THE CAPITAL STACK IN RECOUPMENT ORDER · EQUITY IS PAID LAST

THE CATEGORY DEFAULTTHE ORACLE STANDARD
Box office forecast from the studio seat.Investor returns from the equity seat, through a real recoupment waterfall.
A single flattering number.P10 / P50 / P90 ranges with stated confidence and the downside shown.
A track record that lives in the marketing deck, if anywhere.A permanent public calibration ledger, misses annotated, never reframed.
A black-box score.A methodology version stamp on every report, with limitations disclosed in writing.
Incentives that are hard to see from outside.No success fees, no percentage of financing, ever. The engine has no stake in its own answer, published as doctrine.

THE PROOF

A track record you can audit.

One engine. One verdict. Price buys run volume, nothing else. No success fees, no share of your financing. The verdict is not for sale.

Six films, analyzed blind from the screenplay before anyone looked at what happened. Five landed inside the predicted range. One did not, and it is on the record at full size with what the engine got wrong.

Entries are permanent. Never deleted, never quietly revised. Full annotations and the basis of every realized figure are on the ledger page.

FixturePredictedBandRealizedCoverageNote
Past Lives

2023 · BACKTEST

RECOMMEND · 2.04x1.08x TO 3.91x~1.1x MOIC PROXYINCritical hit, modest theatrical profit; reality landed at the band's lower rail, not the P50.
Anatomy of a Fall

2023 · BACKTEST

RECOMMEND · 2.52x1.21x TO 4.41x~2.1x MOIC PROXYINClosest P50-to-realized fit in the set.
The Holdovers

2023 · BACKTEST

RECOMMEND · 2.13x1.09x TO 4.11x~1.2x MOIC PROXYINReception nailed; money landed at the conservative edge of the band.
Everything Everywhere All at Once

2022 · BACKTEST

RECOMMEND · 2.35x1.11x TO 3.77x~2.5x MOIC PROXYINIn band on the convention figure of 2.5x. The raw gross multiple runs far above the rail, but Oracle does not model tail breakouts by design.
Hereditary

2018 · BACKTEST

CONSIDER · 2.45x1.61x TO 5.67x~3.21x MOIC PROXYINBand held on the conservative side: the engine underestimated the outcome rather than overselling it.
Empire of Light

2022 · BACKTEST · THE SPECIMEN SHOWN ABOVE

RECOMMEND · 2.55x1.25x TO 4.07x~0.5x MOIC proxy (~$15M WW on $10M entered)MISSThe featured honest miss: RT actual ~44 vs projected bear 67; reception collapse of a prestige package is the model's known limitation and the reason bands are not guarantees.

RETROSPECTIVE CALIBRATION BACKTESTS ON PUBLICLY RELEASED FILMS, RUN AGAINST KNOWN OUTCOMES. ORACLE WAS NOT COMMISSIONED BY ANY PARTY INVOLVED IN THESE PRODUCTIONS.
REALIZED FIGURES ARE A CONVENTION PROXY: WORLDWIDE GROSS DIVIDED BY BUDGET, TIMES A RELEASE-STRATEGY P&A MULTIPLIER. TRUE EQUITY MOIC IS NOT PUBLIC FOR ANY TITLE SHOWN.
THE FIVE 2022 AND 2023 FIXTURES RAN UNDER RULESET S6-MATCH-7; HEREDITARY RAN UNDER S6-MATCH-8. EARLIER FIGURES ARE NEVER RESTATED.

MISSES ARE SHOWN, NOT SMOOTHED; BAND COVERAGE ACROSS FEW FIXTURES IS EVIDENCE OF PROCESS, NOT PROOF OF ACCURACY. REALIZED FIGURES ARE BEST PUBLIC ESTIMATES; WHERE MARKED, MOIC IS A PROXY, NOT DISCLOSED RETURNS.

View the full ledger

WHO BUILT THIS

Oracle is built by working filmmakers who sit on the selling side of the table. The engine exists because we needed it.

THE PROCESS

Three steps. Nothing to learn. No seat license.

01

You upload.

Sign in and enter the project yourself: screenplay, and whatever package exists. Budget, cast, finance plan. Early-stage is fine; Oracle prices uncertainty rather than demanding a finished package. Feature scripts up to 200 pages, as a text-layer PDF.

02

The engine runs.

Story DNA, comps, the room, the distributor map, and 5,000 waterfall simulations per matched distributor scenario. No meetings, no interviews, no opinions collected. The engine reads the material and only the material.

03

You receive the report.

A complete analysis with the verdict, the drivers, the ranges, and the methodology stamp. Yours to share with financiers, partners, or no one at all. Custody is yours; the verdict is the engine's.

Pricing is run volume. Nothing else.

Every run is the same full report, from the same engine, at the same calibration standard. From a single project to a twenty-a-month slate, the only thing the price changes is how many times you can run the engine. It never buys depth, custody, or a different answer.

VIEW THE RATE CARD Request access or email access@filmoracle.io

EARLY ADOPTER PRICING

A Single Project is one run plus one included rerun, locked to a title for forty five days. Packs and slates buy more runs at a lower price each, and on those a rerun consumes a run like any other.

The report is identical at any price. Every run carries the full engine, the custody and provenance certificate a financier can put in a file, and Path to a Better Verdict, so a verdict you did not want still arrives with the levers named and sized. None of that is a paid upgrade; it ships on every run.

SINGLE PROJECT$975
5-RUN PACK$3,900
SLATE 10 / MO$5,850
SLATE 20 / MO$10,400

EARLY ADOPTER RATES. THE REPORT IS IDENTICAL AT ANY PRICE.

QUESTIONS, ANSWERED STRAIGHT

What people ask before they trust it with a script.

Can I pay for a better verdict?+

No. Every report at every price point is generated by the same engine under the same rules, and contains the same full analysis. Price buys run volume, how many times you can run the engine, never depth, custody, or a different answer. The calibration ledger exists so you can hold us to it.

What if Oracle gets it wrong?+

Then the miss goes on the ledger, permanently, annotated with what the engine got wrong and what changed in the methodology as a result. Misses are never deleted, smoothed, or reframed. A forecasting product that hides its misses is a marketing product.

Is this a box office prediction tool?+

No. Box office is one input, not the answer. Oracle forecasts what reaches your position in the capital stack after sales agents, distributors, P&A, and debt take their cuts in order. Investors do not get paid in box office, so Oracle does not stop there.

My film is early. Script only, no cast attached. Can Oracle read it?+

Yes. The engine reads the screenplay itself and prices the uncertainty of everything not yet attached. Ranges will be wider, and the report will say so plainly. Many filmmakers run a Single Project exactly at this stage, then use the included rerun as the package firms up.

Who sees my screenplay?+

The engine. No reader, no panel, no outside opinion. Your project is isolated at the database layer, files are served only through expiring signed URLs, and your material is never used to train public models, never shared with third parties, and never cited in anyone else's report. Custody of the finished report is entirely yours.

How is this different from coverage or a script consultant?+

Coverage is one reader's opinion about the writing. Oracle is a calibrated forecast of the film as a financial event: reception, buyers, and the money, with a published track record behind the method. Coverage speaks to the work as cinema; the verdict speaks to the investment.

Are the audience personas real people?+

No, and the report says so on the page where they appear. They are synthetic personas from a fixed vault of 400, stratified across 36 countries and built to mirror real theatrical demographics; each report draws a sample of 200. They are a rehearsal of the room, not a survey of it, and they are priced into the confidence ranges accordingly.

Will a low verdict be shown to anyone else?+

No. Reports are delivered only to the commissioning party, and a producer can run one privately to see what diligence will find before anyone else runs it. The calibration ledger tracks engine performance, not confidential client projects.

What is the difference between the tiers?+

Only how many runs you get. Every run is the same full report: the same verdict, the same waterfall, the same audience and critic reception, the same custody and provenance certificate, and Path to a Better Verdict included. Single Project is one run plus an included rerun; the packs and slates buy more runs at a lower price each. You are never buying a different or deeper report, only more of the same one.

How long does a report take?+

Every run most often finishes in under 30 minutes and arrives in your inbox. There is no slower tier and no faster one; every run is the same automated engine, at every price.

What are the script limits?+

Feature scripts up to 200 pages, supplied as a text-layer PDF. Scanned PDFs are limited further, because the text has to be read reliably before anything can be analyzed.

When do I pay?+

When you buy the runs, before you use them. Prices are flat, published, and per run. There are no success fees, no retainers, and no seat licenses.

Do you offer refunds?+

Plainly: a verdict is never refundable for being unwelcome. That is the entire point of a calibrated engine you cannot pay to change its mind. Delivery failures are a different matter. If a report fails to deliver, or arrives materially incomplete or corrupted, the run is repeated or refunded.

Does a RECOMMEND mean my film will make money?+

No. It means the calibrated odds favor the equity position, with the downside stated in the same breath. Oracle reports are analytical opinions, not investment advice, and no forecast removes the risk from independent film. What it removes is the guesswork about where that risk sits.

Your filmVERDICT · PRIVATE

YOUR REPORT IS NEVER ADDED TO THIS LEDGER.

It stays private. It stays yours.

ROW-LEVEL ISOLATION EXPIRING SIGNED LINKS DELIVERED ONLY TO YOUR ACCOUNT

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Only the engine reads the screenplay. Nothing else does.
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Your project is never named, never excerpted, and never added to the ledger.