FRAMELORE ORACLE · FILM FINANCE ANALYSIS
Submit a screenplay and a budget. Oracle premieres the film in simulation: audiences react, critics file reviews, distributors bid or pass, and every dollar runs the recoupment waterfall. One calibrated verdict comes back, DECLINE to STRONG RECOMMEND, every driver named.
400 simulated personas across 36 countries and a six-critic panel react to your script before a single frame exists. Excitement, will-see intent, projected reviews.
A probabilistic map of which distributors are genuinely positioned to acquire your film, drawn from a classified database of 2,000+ releases. Not a wish list. A likelihood-weighted map.
Know what a financier's diligence will find before they run it. Path to a Better Verdict names what is costing you the band, and what moves it.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Each report runs 35,000 full waterfall simulations across every plausible release path. Box office enters at the top. Sales agents, distributors, P&A and debt each take their cut in order. What reaches equity, and when, and with what probability, is the number Oracle answers for.
SPECIMEN RUN · FLOOR SCENARIO · PLAYS ON ENTRY
Costs absorb 64 percent of distributable gross; 36 percent returns to the capital stack. Equity recoups fully at $55.6M worldwide.
THE SIMULATION
The waterfall above is a single path at the floor. A report runs the full recoupment stack 35,000 times across every plausible release scenario, then reports the shape of what came back: the floor, the median, the ceiling, and the odds of losing money, stated plainly.
SPECIMEN DISTRIBUTION · PLAYS ON ENTRY · THE RECORDED FIGURES DO NOT MOVE
WHY IT MATTERS
Independent film is financed on conviction. Oracle prices it on evidence.
DILIGENCE, COMPRESSED
Deals now stall in extended diligence cycles, not in development. A calibrated report puts the analysis on the table on day one, in a format capital already knows how to read.
ASSUMPTIONS, STRESS-TESTED
Every financier stress-tests the producer's waterfall assumptions eventually. Oracle does it first, in private, before the money asks.
ONE LANGUAGE
Creative reads story; capital reads recoupment. An Oracle report holds both in one document, so the two sides of the table finally argue about the same numbers.
THE ROOM
The audience vault holds 400 stratified personas across 36 countries, weighted to mirror global theatrical markets, each with its own demographics, tastes, and voice. Every report samples the vault, screens your script to the room, and reports excitement, will-see intent, and projected reviews as ranges with stated confidence. Never as a single flattering number. It is exactly the feedback a test screening buys, before anything is shot.
ONE DOT = ONE PERSONA · BRIGHTNESS = EXCITEMENT · SPECIMEN RUN
VAULT WEIGHTING BY MARKET · USA 55% · CANADA 11% · UK 10% · ANZ + IRELAND 7% · W. EUROPE 6% · ASIA 5% · NORDIC + E. EUROPE 3% · LATAM 3%
SIX CRITIC LENSES · TICK MARKS THE 6.0 FRESH LINE · SPECIMEN PANEL MEAN 6.9/10 · RT PROJECTION 79%
"A love letter for people like me who scribble screenplay ideas after every film; I need to see this immediately."
SOFIA A. · 23 · LISBON, PORTUGAL · EXCITEMENT 9/10
"Seaside England, workplace affairs, that's a long way from anything I know or care to sit through for two hours."
LOUIE B. · 67 · YELLOWKNIFE, CANADA · EXCITEMENT 3/10
SYNTHETIC PERSONA REACTIONS FROM A REAL SPECIMEN RUN · NOT HUMAN RESPONDENTS, AND REPORTED AS SUCH IN EVERY REPORT
THE METHOD
THE ENGINE, END TO END · EVERY REPORT AT EVERY PRICE RUNS THE FULL PATH
Story DNA extracted from the screenplay itself: genre signature, emotional arc, commercial hooks, risk signals. The engine reads the work as written, not a synopsis of it.
Comparables drawn from a 2,132-film classified database, 2010 to 2025, with verified public grosses. Every comparable is a real release, scored for genre, budget tier, cast and director quality, and release strategy.
The 400-persona vault and the six-critic panel screen the material. Reception comes back as ranges with stated confidence, bear to bull, because a forecast that cannot be wrong is not a forecast.
35,000 Monte Carlo waterfall runs per report, per release path, through the real recoupment order: fees, P&A, debt, corridors, deferments. Every money number carries the name of the lens it was computed under.
One of six bands, DECLINE to STRONG RECOMMEND, with the drivers named. When something costs the project, the report says which thing and how much. Deductions are named, never silently omitted. Every report is stamped with its methodology version and logged to the calibration ledger.
Confidence is earned structurally: verified data where it exists, declared estimates where it does not, and a permanent record of how each engine generation has performed. The report tells you what Oracle cannot know, in writing.
THE ARTIFACT
The deliverable is a bound, versioned report built to be forwarded: the verdict and its drivers, the room, the money, the buyer map, and a custody trail naming exactly what was analyzed and under which engine. It reads like a prospectus, not a printout.
WHO IT SERVES
FILMMAKERS & PRODUCERS
A Pre-Flight report is private to you: pressure-test the package, see what is costing you the band, fix it before it costs you the deal. Rerun after every rewrite and watch the verdict respond to the work.
PRE-FLIGHT · PRIVATE DILIGENCE REHEARSAL
PATH TO A BETTER VERDICT · NAMED LEVERS, SIZED
FILMMAKER MODE · A CRAFT GRADE THAT READS THE WORK AS CINEMA
THE RAISE KIT · TWO-PAGE INVESTOR SUMMARY + READ-ONLY REPORT LINKS
INVESTORS & FAMILY OFFICES
Waterfall economics from your seat, at the bottom of the stack where the risk actually lives. A verdict you can put in the file, with a custody certificate documenting exactly what was analyzed, when, under which engine version. One engine, one verdict: structurally impossible to pay for a different answer.
EQUITY-SEAT WATERFALL · P10 / P50 / P90
CUSTODY CERTIFICATE · CHAIN OF ANALYSIS
CALIBRATION LEDGER · THE ENGINE'S OWN TRACK RECORD
SALES AGENTS & DISTRIBUTORS
Distributor candidates ranked by match probability against 2,000+ classified releases, comp-grounded acquisition estimates for the negotiation, and festival routing with theatrical math for positioning the title.
BUYER MAP · RANKED BY MATCH PROBABILITY
ACQUISITION ESTIMATES · COMP-GROUNDED
FESTIVAL + THEATRICAL MATH · SCREENS, PTA, MULTIPLIER
LENDERS
The engine already models the debt position: collateral coverage, repayment order, downside scenarios. A dedicated Lender Memo format is on the roadmap; register interest and we will notify you at availability.
DEBT-SEAT ANALYSIS · ALREADY IN THE ENGINE
LENDER MEMO · DEDICATED FORMAT, IN ROLLOUT
A calibrated third-party read, a custody-stamped report an investor can put in a diligence file, and a path to a better verdict before anyone else scores you. Every report ends where your film needs to go: to market.
FESTIVAL ROUTING
Best-fit festival strategy with fallbacks, matched to the film's lane and release window.
BUYER TARGETS
Distributors ranked by match probability, with tier, deal structure, and fit reasoning.
AWARDS POSITIONING
Target categories, campaign path, and campaign cost, read honestly against the field.
THE PITCH, WRITTEN
An investor-ready pitch paragraph in every report, built from the analysis, ready to forward.
THE EDGE
An investor does not get paid in box office. Between the ticket and your return sit fees, P&A, debt, and corridors, and most analysis stops before any of them. Oracle starts there.
THE CAPITAL STACK IN RECOUPMENT ORDER · EQUITY IS PAID LAST
THE PROOF
You cannot pay Oracle to change its mind. Every report, at every price point, is generated by the same engine under the same rules. Pricing buys depth, custody, and service level. It never buys a different answer. No success fees, no percentage of financing, ever.
Every Oracle verdict is logged against what actually happened. Backtests and live reports alike. The ledger is permanent: entries are never deleted, never quietly revised, never reframed after the fact. When Oracle misses, the miss stays on the record with an annotation explaining what the engine got wrong and what changed in the methodology as a result.
Below: the calibration fixtures. Five completed films analyzed blind from script and package and checked against what actually happened, including the one the engine got wrong.
| Fixture | Predicted | Band | Realized | Coverage | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past Lives 2023 · BACKTEST | RECOMMEND · 2.04x | 1.08x TO 3.91x | ~1.1x MOIC PROXY | IN | Critical hit, modest theatrical profit; reality landed at the band's lower rail, not the P50. |
| Anatomy of a Fall 2023 · BACKTEST | RECOMMEND · 2.52x | 1.21x TO 4.41x | ~2.1x MOIC PROXY | IN | Closest P50-to-realized fit in the set. |
| The Holdovers 2023 · BACKTEST | RECOMMEND · 2.13x | 1.09x TO 4.11x | ~1.2x MOIC PROXY | IN | Reception nailed; money landed at the conservative edge of the band. |
| Everything Everywhere All at Once 2022 · BACKTEST | RECOMMEND · 2.35x | 1.11x TO 3.77x | ~2.5x MOIC PROXY | IN | In-band on the convention; the raw multiple marks a breakout the P90 rail undercalls. |
| Empire of Light 2022 · BACKTEST · THE SPECIMEN SHOWN ABOVE | RECOMMEND · 2.55x | 1.25x TO 4.07x | ~0.5x MOIC proxy (~$15M WW on $10M entered) | MISS | The featured honest miss: RT actual ~44 vs projected bear 67; reception collapse of a prestige package is the model's known limitation and the reason bands are not guarantees. |
RETROSPECTIVE CALIBRATION BACKTESTS ON PUBLICLY RELEASED FILMS, RUN AGAINST KNOWN OUTCOMES. ORACLE WAS NOT COMMISSIONED BY ANY PARTY INVOLVED IN THESE PRODUCTIONS.
MISSES ARE SHOWN, NOT SMOOTHED; BAND COVERAGE ACROSS FEW FIXTURES IS EVIDENCE OF PROCESS, NOT PROOF OF ACCURACY. REALIZED FIGURES ARE BEST PUBLIC ESTIMATES; WHERE MARKED, MOIC IS A PROXY, NOT DISCLOSED RETURNS.
View the full ledgerWHO BUILT THIS
Oracle is built by working filmmakers who sit on the selling side of the table. The engine exists because we needed it.
THE PROCESS
01
Send the screenplay and whatever package exists: budget, cast attachments, finance plan. Early-stage projects are welcome; Oracle prices uncertainty honestly rather than demanding a finished package.
02
Story DNA, comps, the room, the distributor map, and 35,000 waterfall simulations. No meetings, no interviews, no opinions collected. The engine reads the material and only the material.
03
A complete analysis with the verdict, the drivers, the ranges, and the methodology stamp. Yours to share with financiers, partners, or no one at all. Custody is yours; the verdict is the engine's.
QUESTIONS, ANSWERED STRAIGHT
No. Every report at every price point is generated by the same engine under the same rules. Pricing buys depth, custody, and service level. It never buys a different answer. This is the founding doctrine of the product, and the calibration ledger exists so you can hold us to it.
Then the miss goes on the ledger, permanently, annotated with what the engine got wrong and what changed in the methodology as a result. Misses are never deleted, smoothed, or reframed. A forecasting product that hides its misses is a marketing product.
No. Box office is one input, not the answer. Oracle forecasts what reaches your position in the capital stack after sales agents, distributors, P&A, and debt take their cuts in order. Investors do not get paid in box office, so Oracle does not stop there.
Yes. The engine reads the screenplay itself and prices the uncertainty of everything not yet attached. Ranges will be wider, and the report will say so plainly. Many filmmakers run a Draft Read exactly at this stage, then rerun as the package firms up.
The engine, and the small team that operates it under confidentiality. Your material is never used to train public models, never shared with third parties, and never cited in anyone else's report. Custody of the finished report is entirely yours.
Coverage is one reader's opinion about the writing. Oracle is a calibrated forecast of the film as a financial event: reception, buyers, and the money, with a published track record behind the method. The Craft Grade in Filmmaker Mode speaks to the work as cinema; the verdict speaks to the investment.
No, and the report says so on the page where they appear. They are 400 synthetic personas stratified across 36 countries, built to mirror real theatrical demographics. They are a rehearsal of the room, not a survey of it, and they are priced into the confidence ranges accordingly.
No. Reports are delivered only to the commissioning party. A Pre-Flight is explicitly private to the producer: it exists so you can see what diligence will find before anyone runs it. The calibration ledger tracks engine performance, not confidential client projects.
The engine and verdict are identical. Pre-Flight is the producer's private read and includes the Path to a Better Verdict module. Investor Edition is prepared for the capital side and adds the custody and provenance certificate documenting exactly what was analyzed, when, and under which engine version, so the report can sit in a diligence file.
No. It means the calibrated odds favor the equity position, with the downside stated in the same breath. Oracle reports are analytical opinions, not investment advice, and no forecast removes the risk from independent film. What it removes is the guesswork about where that risk sits.
THE NEXT ROW IN THE LEDGER IS UNWRITTEN.
The next premiere on the ledger could be yours.
RUN YOUR FILM THROUGH ORACLE